Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
