Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
